Quantal-response equilibrium models of the ultimatum bargaining game

This paper investigates the implications of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) models [McKelvey and Palfrey, 1995, Games Econ. Behav. 10, 6–38; 1998, Exper. Econ. 1, 9–41] in the ultimatum bargaining game. It is shown that, in a normal-form QRE (NQRE), each bargainer's decision depends critically on the anticipated behavior of the other, and there is a NQRE in which the proposer makes any offer between zero and equal split as a strict best response. The application of NQRE to the experimental data [Slonim and Roth, 1998, Econometrica 66, 569–596] suggests that the history dependence observed in the experiment is a result of the strategic interactions between bargainers.     

中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。     

外商直接投资技术溢出渠道差异性研究

根据中国2002-2014年8个行业的面板数据,对中国外商直接投资技术溢出渠道的差异性进行了实证检验,结果发现中国外商直接投资3种渠道下的溢出效应均为正,但水平溢出、后向溢出效应呈现递减趋势,前向技术溢出效应基本保持不变,且前向技术溢出大于其它两种渠道的溢出效应。最后,根据实证检验结果,从国家和企业两个层面有针对性地提出了相关政策建议。     

中国股票市场国际联动性研究

本文选取2000~2015年全球40支股票指数日收盘价,通过建立收益率网络和DCC MVGARCH模型波动率网络对中国股票市场国际联动性进行实证分析。研究表明,随着经济全球化的加深,全球股市收益率和波动率联动逐渐增强;全球金融危机和欧债危机期间,收益率联动网络具有小世界性;中国与全球股市长期处于割裂状态,但在全球金融危机期间与其他市场联系加强。在全球经济形势复杂多变的情况下,中国应针对性采取措施促进股市发展,以分享全球金融一体化利益。     

沪深港股市动态联动性研究——基于三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC的新证据

随着经济全球化的迅速发展,国际资本市场呈现出一体化趋势,各地证券价格的联动性也日趋显著。本文梳理已有理论文献,并总结经验成果的不足,在此基础上,构建三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC整合分析框架,对沪深港股市联动效应进行了严谨而全面的实证检验。研究结果表明:沪深港三个市场具有联动效应,直接或间接引导对方;沪深股市对港市的新息冲击做出类似的反应,并且它们与港市的动态关联性具有趋同性,该结论为沪深两市合并提供了新证据;三个市场的相关性具有时变的动态特征,"中国因素"与"世界因素"的相关性正趋于增强。上述实证结论对投资者重新认识市场运行机制,合理制定投资策略以及监管当局有效防范国内外股市风险,推进股市整合均具有重要的启示意义。     

反假币联动机制存在的不足及建议

目前,反假货币工作形成了一个全社会相关职能部门共同参与的联动机制,对做好防范、打击假币犯罪活动,遏制假币发展势头起到了积极的作用。但在实践中发现,各成员单位作用发挥的不尽理想,人民银行在此项工作中上演着＂独角戏＂,本文对如何发挥反假货币联席单位作用,引导各相关部门自觉参与,完善考核制度,提升履职能力进行了探索。     

Identification of backward district in India by applying the principal component analysis and fuzzy approach: A census based study

India is a large country with several axes of inequality. Among the various axes of inequality, the regional disparity is the prominent one. This study aims to find out the most backward districts in India with the help of the latest available statistics data. For this purpose, 25 indicators are selected and these are further categorized into six dimensions based on their characteristics. The principal component analysis is applied in R Studio for the data dimension reduction and the calculation of weight. Later on, the fuzzy approach is taken into consideration for integration purposes. The final output shows that 80 districts that are located mainly in Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Bihar are the most backward. Contrary to this, 73 districts that are located mainly in the western coastal plain and north-west India are the least backward. Besides, this study also observes that development patterns in India are not uniform in character. Most of the developed districts are concentrated in few pockets. The suitability of this study is analyzed in comparison to other studies. The result shows comparatively better acceptability of this model in comparison to other studies.     

Forward or backward simulation? A comparative study

The aim of this study is to present algorithms for the backward simulation of standard processes that are commonly used in financial applications. We extend the works of Ribeiro and Webber and Avramidis and L'Ecuyer on gamma bridge and obtain the backward construction of a gamma process. In addition, we are able to write a novel acceptance–rejection algorithm to simulate the Inverse Gaussian (IG) bridge and consequently, the IG process backward in time. Therefore, using the time-change approach, we can easily derive the backward generation of the compound Poisson with infinitely divisible jumps, the Variance-Gamma the Normal-Inverse-Gaussian processes and subsequently the time-changed version of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process introduced by Li and Linesky. We then compare the performance of the forward and backward construction of all these processes and show that the latter one is the preferable solution in the context of pricing American options or energy facilities like gas storages.     

Analytical and Empirical Comparison of Policy-Relevant Key Sector Measures

Abstract

We consider the 10 most salient key sector measures (linkages) and identify groups of the most similar indicators on both analytical and empirical grounds. We derive new closed-form formulas for the generalized complete and partial hypothetical extraction linkages and add the up-till-now-undefined forward counterpart of the net backward linkage. The analytical relations and some stylized facts enable us to formulate hypotheses about the direction and strength of the relationships between various linkages. To study policy-relevant measures, our empirical tests are based on income (GDP) linkages, CO₂ emission linkages and employment linkages for 34 industries and 33 countries. The data show that the information on the 10 key sector measures may be summarized by three to at most four measures.     

Belief in the opponentsʼ future rationality

For dynamic games we consider the idea that a player, at every stage of the game, will always believe that his opponents will choose rationally in the future. This is the basis for the concept of common belief in future rationality, which we formalize within an epistemic model. We present an iterative procedure, backward dominance, that proceeds by eliminating strategies from the game, based on strict dominance arguments. We show that the backward dominance procedure selects precisely those strategies that can rationally be chosen under common belief in future rationality if we would not impose (common belief in) Bayesian updating.